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创造性破坏的力量 5.结论
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对于创新与长期增长前景，我们应该赞同莫克尔的乐观态度，还是戈登的悲观主义？本章的分析表明，虽然莫克尔对未来科学发展和创新能力的乐观看法言之有理，但戈登的悲观主义也反映了现实的经济与政治势力对必要的制度变革的阻碍。尤其是，如果竞争政策不考虑创新议题，则信息技术与人工智能革命有可能束缚创新与增长，而非发挥促进作用。本章和第5章的讨论带来的另一个启示是，充分考虑创新的竞争政策不仅有助于增长，还会提高社会流动性。在促进经济增长的平等性和包容性方面，此类政策与累进式税收政策同样重要，并能够形成互补。
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[2]Robert Gordon and Joel Mokyr,“Boom vs. Doom: Debating the Future of the US Economy Debate,” presentation at the Chicago Council of Global Affairs, October 31,2016.关于他们观点更完整的陈述，可参见Robert Gordon,TheRiseandFallofAmericanGrowth（Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2016）; and Joel Mokyr,“Secular Stagnation? Not in Your Life,” inSecularStagnation: Facts,CausesandCures, ed. C. Teulings and R. Baldwin, 83 -89（London
:CEPR Press, 2014）.
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[3]Alvin Hansen,“Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth” （presidential address）,AmericanEconomicReview29, no. 1（1939）:1 -15.
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[4]Lawrence H. Summers,“Reflections on the New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis,” inSecular Stagnation
:Facts,Causes and Cures, ed. C. Teulings and R. Baldwin,27 -38（London: CEPR Press, 2014）.
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[5]1969年投入市场的超音速协和客机可以大幅缩短航空旅行时间，但只能服务于极少数乘客，并最终于2003年退出运营。
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[6]Salomé Baslandze,“The Role of the IT Revolution in Knowledge Diffusion,Innovation and Reallocation,”2016 Meeting Papers, No. 1509, Society for Economic Dynamics, 2016.
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[7]这一现象被称为“中等收入陷阱”，将在本书第7章详细探讨。
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[8]Ryan Banerjee and Boris Hofmann,“The Rise of Zombie Firms: Causes and Consequences,”BISQuarterlyReview（September 2018）:67 -78, https: //www. bis. org/ publ/ qtrpdf/ r_qt1809g. pdf.
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[9]Ricardo J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,“Rents,Technical Change, and Risk Premia Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns on Capital, Earning Yields, and Factor Shares,”AmericanEconomicReview107, no. 5（2017）
:614 -620.
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[10]Nicholas Bloom, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb,“Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?”AmericanEconomicReview110, no. 4（2020）
:1104 -1144.
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[11]Charles I. Jones,“R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy103, no. 4（1995）
:759 -784.
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[12]Ufuk Akcigit and William R. Kerr,“Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations,”Journal of Political Economy126, no. 4（2018）
:1374 -1443.
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[13]David Byrne, Stephen Oliner, and Daniel Sichel,“How Fast Are Semiconductor Prices Falling?”ReviewofIncomeandWealth64, no. 3（2018）
:679 -702.
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[14]John Sutton,Sunk Costs and Market Structure
:Price Competition
:Advertising,and the Evolution of Concentration（Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991）.
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[15]Hal R. Varian,“Intelligent Technology,” in special issue“Smart Technology Takes Flight,”Finance& Development（IMF quarterly report）53, no. 3（2016）:6 -9, https: // www. imf. org/ external/ pubs/ ft/ fandd/ 2016 /09 / pdf/ fd0916. pdf.
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[16]David M. Byrne, John G. Fernald, and Marshall B. Reinsdorf,“Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?”BrookingsPaperson Economic Activity1（2016）
:109 -182.
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[17]Chad Syverson,“Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown,”JournalofEconomicPerspectives31, no. 2（2017）
:165 -186.
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[18]Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow, and HuiyuLi, “Missing Growth from Creative Destruction,”AmericanEconomicReview109, no. 8（2019）
:2795 -2822.
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[19]美国等许多国家采用这一方法，但法国等国却较少采用。
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[20]这个例子来自如下论文: Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart,Peter J. Klenow, and Huiyu Li, “Missing Growth from Creative Destruction,”AmericanEconomicReview109, no. 8（2019）
:2795 -2822.
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[21]Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, and Simon Bunel, “Firm Dynamics and Growth Measurement in France,”JournaloftheEuropeanEconomicAssociation16, no. 4（2018）
:933 -956.
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[22]对此问题的另一看法，可参阅Stephen Redding的论文，尤其是Stephen J. Redding and David E. Weinstein,“Measuring Aggregate Price Indexes with Taste Shocks: Theory and Evidence for CES Preferences”（NBER Working Paper No. 22479, National Bureau of Economic Research,Cambridge, MA,2016）.
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[23]Thomas Philippon,The Great Reversal
:How America Gave Up on Free Markets（Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2019）.
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