打字猴:1.70155984e+09
1701559840
1701559841 295 “每一位等待聚会晚归女儿的家长……”:Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
1701559842
1701559843 295 死亡人数增加了2170人:这其中存在统计争议。戴奥南丹和贝克威尔(2011)发现死亡人数并无差距,但伤病人数增加了。布莱洛克、卡迪亚里与西蒙(2009)发现,死亡人数在2011年的最后三个月为982,但从长远来看,死亡人数为2300。“9·11”的影响似乎还在继续——人们担心,恐怖分子会在“9·11”周年的前后再次发动恐怖袭击,因此每年九月,国道事故就比以往多好几百例。
1701559844
1701559845 吉热恩泽(2006)曾经写到,“据估算,为了避免遭受四大致命航班殒命的魔咒,每年大约有1500位美国人死在公路上。”
1701559846
1701559847 查普曼与哈里斯(2002)就人类无法正确地识别风险,对一些死亡形式反应过大或过小,曾经写过一篇很好的文章。参见 Kenny (2011), 以及 Sivac & Flannagan (2003)。
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1701559849 Blalock, G., Kadiyali, V., & Simon, D. H. (2009). Driving fatalities after 9/ 11: A hidden cost of terrorism. Applied Economics, 41(14), 1717–1729.
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1701559851 Chapman, C. R., & Harris, A. W. (2002). A skeptical look at September 11th.Skeptical Inquirer, 26(5). 摘自 http://www.csicop.org
1701559852
1701559853 Deonandan, R., & Backwell, A. (2011). Driving deaths and injuries post-9/ 11. International Journal of General Medicine, 4, 803–807.
1701559854
1701559855 Gigerenzer, G. (2006). Out of the frying pan into the fire: Behavioral reactions to terrorist attacks. Risk Analysis, 26(2), 347–351.
1701559856
1701559857 Hampson, R. (2011, September 5). After 9/ 11: 50 dates that quietly changed America. USA Today.
1701559858
1701559859 Kenny, C. (2011, November 18). Airport security is killing us. Business Week.
1701559860
1701559861 Sivak M., & Flannagan, M. (2003). Flying and driving after the September 11 attacks. American Scientist, 91(1), 6–8.
1701559862
1701559863 295 数十亿次安全飞行:Snyder, B. (2012, January 9) An incredibly safe year for air travel. CNN. 摘自 http:// www. cnn. com。
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1701559865 295 “恐怖分子可以伤害我们两次……”:Gaissmaier, W., & Gigerenzer, G. (2012). 9/ 11, Act II: A fine-grained analysis of regional variations in traffic fatalities in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks. Psychological Science, 23(12), 1449–1454.
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1701559867 295 但事实并非如此:Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
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1701559869 296 只有20%的准确率:Christakis, N. A. (1999). Death foretold: Prophecy and prognosis in medical care. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.
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1701559871 296 有40%都做出了错误的判断:Berner, E. S., & Graber, M. L., (2008). Overconfidence as a cause of diagnostic error in medicine. American Journal of Medicine, 121(5 Suppl.), S2–S23.
1701559872
1701559873 297 七成公司:O’Connor, A. (2013, December 21). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.
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1701559875 297 克里斯托弗·赫雷拉:O’Connor, A. (2013, December 21). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.
1701559876
1701559877 297 绿茶提取物用于燃烧脂肪,随后他就出现了严重的肝功能损伤:摘自 O’Connor, A. (2013, December 22). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.
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1701559879 298再多的故事也无法构成数据:Sechrest, L., & Pitz, D. (1987). Commentary: Measuring the effecti-veness of heart transplant programmes. Journal of Chronic Diseases, 40(Suppl. 1), 155S–158S.
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1701559881 299 史蒂夫·乔布斯身上的故事,他拒绝手术:Quora. (n. d). Why did Steve Jobs choose not to effectively treat his cancer? 摘自 http:// www. quora. com/ Steve-Jobs / Why-did-Steve-Jobs-choose-not-to-effectively-treat-his-cancer。
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1701559883 Walton, A. G. (2011, October 24). Steve Jobs’ cancer treatment regrets. Forbes.
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1701559885 300 美国国立卫生研究院下设了……分院:National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine (NCCAM). (n. d.). 摘自 http:// nccam. nih. gov/。
1701559886
1701559887 300 从替代疗法中获益: 参见 Garg, S. K., Croft, A. M., & Bager, P. (2014, January 20). Helminth therapy (worms) for induction of remission in inflammatory bowel disease. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (1), Art. No. CD009400. 摘自 http:// summaries. cochrane. org/ CD009400 / helminth-therapy-worms-for-induction-of-remission-in-inflammatory-bowel -disease。
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1701559889 White, A. R., Rampes, H., Liu, J. P., Stead, L. F., & Campbell, J. (2014, January 23). Acupuncture and related interventions for smoking cessation. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (1), Art. No. CD000009. 摘自 http:// summaries . cochrane. org/ CD000009/ do-acupuncture-and-related-therapies-help-smokers-who -are-trying-to-quit。
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