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300 服用维生素D的150人中：Bjelakovic, G., Gluud, L., Nikolova, D., Whitfield, K., Wetterslev, J., Simonetti, R. G., … Gluud, C. (2014). Vitamin D supplementation for prevention of mortality in adults. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (1), Art. No. CD007470. 摘自 http:// summaries .cochrane. org / CD007470/ vitamin-d-supplementation-for-prevention-of-mortality-in-adults#sthash . Z6rLxTiS. dpuf。
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300 过量维生素D将指向死亡：Durup, D., Jørgensen, H. L., Christensen, J., Schwarz, P., Heegaard, A. M., & Lind, B. (2012). A reverse J-shaped association of all-cause mortality with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in general practice: The CopD study. The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 97(8), 2644–2652.
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Groopman, J., & Hartzband, P. (2011). Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you. New York, NY: Penguin.
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301 4种病人：我在此借鉴了我之前曾出版的文章. Levitin, D. J. (2011, October 9). Heal thyself. [Review of the book Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you by J. Groopman & P. Hartzband]. The New York Times Sunday Book Review, p. BR28.
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302 前景理论与预期效用：参见 Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292.
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303 场景D将死的可能性转变成绝对的生存：阿莫斯曾经讲了这样一个故事：一位已婚男性已经有两个孩子，他被恐怖分子劫持，并强迫他玩一个类似于俄罗斯轮盘赌的游戏。左轮手枪中装入了不同数量的子弹。囚犯可以付款给劫持者，以此拆出手枪中的一颗子弹。矛盾的是，他必须平衡他生存下来的可能性，以及身无分文地离开他的妻子和孩子的可能性（我们假设，故事是值得尊敬的，游戏一开始，劫持者准确地告诉了他手枪中有多少子弹。只要他玩一次这个游戏，劫持者就会放他走）。
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a. 如果枪里有6颗子弹的话，你会花费多少来拆除一颗子弹，让死亡的风险从6/6变为5/6呢？
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b. 如果枪里有4颗子弹的话，你会花费多少来拆除一颗子弹，让死亡的风险从4/6变为3/6呢？
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c. 如果枪里有1颗子弹的话，你会花费多少来拆除一颗子弹，让死亡的风险从1/6变为0呢？
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在场景c中，我们愿意付出任何代价，将死亡率降至0。我们也可以在场景a中花费相同的代价。但场景b与其他两个场景有所不同。你是将一种可能性变为另一种可能性，而不是将肯定变为可能（场景a），也不是将可能变为肯定（场景c）。
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303 卡尼曼《思考，快与慢》：Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
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303 甚至是可笑的操控：Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 39(4), 341–350, p. 341.
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304 5年后，78人死亡：我已经将这些例子简化，以关注重要因素。摘自Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational choice and the framing of decisions. Journal of Business 59(4 pt 2), S251–S278.
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304 比起原始数字，往往更关注图形：Ferrara, F., Pratt, D., & Robutti, O. (2006). The role and uses of technologies for the teaching of algebra and calculus. In A. Gutiérrez & P. Boero (Eds.), Handbook of research on the psychology of mathematics education: Past, present and future (pp. 237–273). Boston, MA: Sense Publishers.
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Tall, D. (1991). Intuition and rigour: The role of visualization in the calculus. In W. Zimmermann & S. Cunningham (Eds.), Visualization in teaching and learning mathematics: A project (pp. 105–119). Washington, DC: Mathematical Association of America.
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305 每一个类别下人数的比重：Cates, C. (n. d.). Dr. Chris Cates’ EBM website. 摘自 http:// www. nntonline. net/。
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306 我向一位轮胎专家咨询了此事：Crosswhite, R., 个人交流. April 29, 2013, American Tire Depot, Sherman Oaks, CA。
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Montoya, R. (2011, November 18). How old— and dangerous— are your tires? 摘自 http:// www. edmunds. com。
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第7章
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309 随之而来的政府调查认定：魁北克政府，魁北克交通部. (2007). Commission of inquiry into the collapse of a portion of the de la Concorde overpass: Report. 摘自 http:// www. cevc. gouv. qc. ca/ UserFiles/ File/ Rap port/ report_ eng. pdf。
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309 以次充好的施工案例在人类历史上早有出现：Tranquillus Suetonius, C. (1997). Lives of the twelve Caesars (H. M. Bird, Trans.). Hertfordshire, UK: Wordsworth Classics of World Literature.
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310 19世纪中期之前，企业大多都还是小规模：Yates, J. (1989). Control through commu-nication: The rise of system in American management. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 这一段，我借鉴了耶茨的成果，包括我在引言中所借鉴的耶茨论文中的语句。
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这其中有两个特例。Dutch East India 公司是一家注册的跨国公司，到1602年一直在经营；Hudson’s Bay 成立于1670年，至今仍在经营。
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Damodaran, A. (2009). The octopus: Valuing multi-business, multi-national companies. 摘自 http:// dx. doi. org/ 10. 2139/ ssrn. 1609795。
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Lubinsky, P., Romero-Gonzalez, G. A., Heredia, S. M., & Zabel, S. (2011). Origins and patterns of vanilla cultivation in tropical America ( 1500–1900): No support for an independent domestication of vanilla in South America. In D. Havkin-Frenkel & F. Belanger (Eds.), Handbook of vanilla science and technology (p. 117). Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing.
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