打字猴:1.70291057e+09
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1702910571 [319]Lisa Blaydes and James Lo,“One Man, One Vote, One Time?A Model of Democratizationin the Middle East,”Journal of Theoretical Politics 24,no.1(January 2012):110—146;Paul Pillar,“One Person, One Vote, One Time,”National Interest Blog, October 3,2017,http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/one-person-one-vote-one-time-22583.
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1702910573 [320]有令人担忧的证据表明,美国公众中的各种分歧正开始出现。Alan Abramowitz, The Great Alignment:Race, Party Transformation and the Rise of Donald Trump(New Haven, CT:Yale University Press,2018).并不令人惊讶,我们有充分的理由担心今天美国存在走向独裁的诱惑。参见Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, How Democracies Die(New York:Crown,2018)。
1702910574
1702910575 [321]Emile Durkheim, The Division of Laborin Society(New York:Free Press,1964).
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1702910577 [322]Michael J.Glennon, National Security and Double Government(New York:Oxford University Press,2016).也可参见Michael Lofgren, The Fall of the Constitutionand the Rise of a Shadow Government(New York:Penguin,2016)。
1702910578
1702910579 [323]有关自由民主促进繁荣的主张,参见Michael C.Desch, Power and Military Effectiveness:The Fallacy of Democratic Triumphalism(Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,2008),pp.52—53;Yi Feng,“Democracy, Political Stability, and Economic Growth,”British Journal of Political Science 27,no.3(July 1997):391—418;David A.Lake,“Powerful Pacifists:Democratic States and War,”American Political Science Review 86,no.1(March 1992):24—37。
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1702910581 [324]大多数外交政策分析家和学者认为,自冷战结束以来,国际体系一直是单极的,美国是唯一的极。其他国家可以分为主要国家或小国,而不是大国。参见Nuno P.Monteiro, Theory of Unipolar Politics(New York:Cambridge U-niversity Press,2014)。比较而言,我认为世界将会是多极的,因为中国和俄罗斯也是大国。John J.Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, upda-ted ed.(New York:Norton,2014).然而,毫无疑问,美国比其他两个大国强大得多。事实上,它是这三个国家中唯一的超级大国。因此,我对全球均势的看法和那些认为国际体系是单极的看法几乎没有什么差别。考虑到这一事实,再加上流行词汇的发展,我使用单极这一术语来描述1989年以来的体系结构,而不是不平衡的多极。尽管如此,我认为,一个在多极中远强于其对手的大国也会自由地追求自由主义霸权,主要是因为较弱的大国几乎没有能力来挑战其边界之外的主导国家。
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1702910583 [325]Michael W.Doyle,“Liberalism and World Politics,”American Political Science Review 80,no.4(December 1986):1161.
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1702910585 [326]一些学者认为,是民主的特殊特征解释了为什么自由民主国家之间不打仗,而不是自由主义的特征。换言之,这些替代性解释并没有强调不可剥夺的权利的重要性,而这却是对所谓的这种现象的自由主义解释。在第七章中,我评价了一些民主的特殊属性,这些属性被认为可以防止自由民主国家之间的战争。
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1702910587 [327]0:America and the Dilemmas of Liberal World Order,”Perspectives on Politics 7,no.1(March 2009):75。
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1702910589 [328]Michael W.Doyle,“Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs,”part 2,Philosophy and Public Affairs 12,no.4(Fall 1983):324.也可参见Doyle,“Liberalism and World Politics,”pp.1156—1163。
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1702910591 [329]引自Kenneth N.Waltz, Man, the State and War:A Theoretical Analysis(New York:Columbia University Press,1965),p.111。与此相关的是,多伊尔写道:“自由主义战争只是为了大众的、自由的目的。”Doyle,“Liberalism and World Politics,”p.1160.约翰·欧文(John M.Owen)写道:“所有人都对和平感兴趣,并且希望战争只是作为实现和平的工具。”John M.Owen,“How Lib-eralism Produces Democratic Peace,”International Security 19,no.2(Fall 1994):89.
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1702910593 [330]0,”p.72.
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1702910595 [331]John Rawls, The Law of Peoples:With“The Idea of Public Reason Revis-ited”(Cambridge, MA:Harvard University Press,1999),p.35.
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1702910597 [332]Rawls, The Law of Peoples, p.24.
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1702910599 [333]Bertrand Russell, Portraits from Memory and Other Essays(New York:Simon&Schuster,1956),p.45.
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1702910601 [334]例如,参见Seyla Benhabib,“Claiming Rights across Borders:Interna-tional Human Rights and Democratic Sovereignty,”American Political Science Review 103,no.4(November 2009):691—704。
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1702910603 [335]Rawls, The Law of Peoples, pp.5,93,113.
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1702910605 [336]John M.Owen, The Clash of Ideas in World Politics:Transnational Networks, States, and Regime Change,1510—2010(Princeton, NJ:Princeton U-niversity Press,2010),p.4.
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1702910607 [337]参见Nicolas Guilhot, The Democracy Makers:Human Rights and the Politics of Global Order(New York:Columbia University Press,2005)。
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1702910609 [338]Charles R.Beitz,“International Liberalism and Distributive Justice:A Survey of Recent Thought,”World Politics 51,no.2(January 1999):270.也可参见Brian Barry,“Humanity and Justice in Global Perspective,”in Ethics, Eco-nomics, and the Law;Nomos XXIV, ed.J.Roland Pennock and John W.Chap-man(New York:New York University Press,1982),chap.11;Brian Barry,“International Society from a Cosmopolitan Perspective,”in International Socie-ty:Diverse Ethical Perspectives, ed.David R.Mapel and Terry Nardin(Prince-ton, NJ:Princeton University Press,1998),pp.144—163;Charles R.Beitz, Political Theory and International Relations(Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press,1999),part 3;Richard W.Miller, Globalizing Justice:The Ethics of Poverty and Power(New York:Oxford University Press,2010);Thomas W.Pogge, Realizing Rawls(Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1989),part 3。
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1702910611 [339]Doyle,“Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs,”part 2,pp.338—343;Eric Mack,“The Uneasy Case for Global Redistribution,”in Problems of International Justice, ed.Steven Luper-Foy(Boulder, CO:West-view Press,1988),pp.55—66.大国有时愿意资助重要的盟国获得经济优势,因为有必要威慑或打击一个特别强大的对手。Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, pp.159,292,324—325.然而,这种现实主义的逻辑与促进全球正义无关。
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1702910613 [340]Samuel P.Huntington, Who Are We?The Challenges to America’s Na-tional Identity(New York:Simon&Schuster,2004),p.268.也可参见Samuel P.Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order(New York:Simon&Schuster,1996),chap.3。
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1702910615 [341]Stephen M.Walt, The Hell of Good Intentions:America’s Foreign Poli-cy Elite and the Decline of U.S.Primacy(New York:Farrar, Straus and Giroux,2018),chap.3.也可参见Christopher Layne,“The US Foreign Policy Estab-lishment and Grand Strategy:How American Elites Obstruct Adjustment,”Inter-national Politics 54,no.3(May 2017):260—275;Kevin Narizny, The Political Economy of Grand Strategy(Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,2007)。
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1702910617 [342]现实主义有两种基本形式:人性和结构。此处提出的理论显然属于后一类,因为它强调国际体系的总体设计导致国家追求权力。另一方面,对于人性现实主义者而言,国家想要权力很大程度上是因为大多数人天生就有一种内在的权力意志,这实际上意味着国家是由个人领导的,他们致力于使本国支配其竞争对手。例如,汉斯·摩根索(Hans Morgenthau)认为个人有一种强烈的敌意,这是人类行为和国家行为背后的驱动力。Hans J.Morgenthau, Scien-tific Man vs.Power Politics(London:Latimer House,1947),pp.165—167.也可参见Hans J.Morgenthau, Politics among Nations,5th ed.(New York:Knopf,1973),pp.34—35.对于现实主义者而言,权力本身主要就是一个目的,而不是生存的手段,就像结构现实主义者那样。然而,人性现实主义者确实将生存逻辑融入他们的叙事中,这在很大程度上是因为国家在充满具有侵略性和潜在危险的邻国的世界中运行,它们别无选择,只能担心它们的生存,即使它们的最终目标是为了自身利益而获得权力。关于美国现实主义思想的演变,参见Nicolas Guilhot, After the Enlightenment:Political Realism and Inter-national Relations in the Mid-twentieth Century(New York:Cambridge University Press,2017);Brian C.Schmidt, The Political Discourse of Anarchy:A Discipli-nary History of International Relations(Albany, NY:State University of New York Press,1998)。
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1702910619 [343]下面关于现实主义的讨论大量借鉴了Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, pp.29—54,363—365。
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