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[2] Niall Ferguson,“Networks and hierarchies,“The American Interest,June2014.
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1702965603
[3] Anne-Marie Slaughter,“America’s edge”,Foreign Affairs,January/February2009.
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[4] Randall Schweller,‘Emerging powers in an age of disorder,“Global Governance17,2011,p.286.See also Charles Kupchan,No-One’s World
:The West the Rising Rest,and the Coming Global Turn(New York
:Oxford University Press,2012).
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[5] Office of the Director of National Intelligence,Global Trends2030
:Alternative Worlds(Washington,DC,2012).
1702965608
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[7] International Monetary Fund,World Economic Outlook Database,April2012(Washington,DC
:IMF,2013).
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[8] Jim O’Neill and Alessio Terzi,“Changing trade patterns,unchanging European and global governance,“Brussels,Bruegel Working Paper,February2014,p.3.
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[9] See Peter Zeihan,The Accidental Superpower
:The Next Generation of American Pre-eminence and the Coming Global Disorder(New York
:Hachette,2014).
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[10] Jonathan Kirshner,American Power After the Financial Crisis(Ithaca
:Cornell University Press,2014),p.143.
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[11] Michael Mandelbaum,The Case for Goliath(New York
:Public Affairs,2005),p.226.
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[12] Robert O.Keohane and Joseph S.Nye,“Between centralization and fragmentation
:The club model of multilateral cooperation and problems of democratic legitimacy,“John F.Kennedy School of Government,Harvard University,Faculty Research Working Paper Series,RWP01-004(February2001).
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[13] See J.S.Nye,“Maintaining the non-proliferation regime,“International Organization,Winter1981,pp.15-38.
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[14] “Market value of the largest internet companies worldwide as of May2013,“Statista;available at
:http://www.statista.com/statistics/277483/market value-of-the-largest-internet-companies-worldwide/.Note
:Yahoo and Yahoo-Japan have been treated as one entity for the purposes of company rankings.
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[15] Jonathan Zittrain,“No Barack Obama isn’t handing control of the internet over to China,“The New Republic224,March24,2014.
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[16] Richard J.Danzig,Surviving on a Diet of Poisoned Fruit
:Reducing the National Security Risks of America’s Cyber Dependencies(Washington,DC
:Center for New American Security,2014),p.25.
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[17] Moises Naim,The End of Power(New York
:Basic Books,2013),p.52.
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[18] Quoted in Nathan Gardels,“Governance after the end of power,“New Perspectives Quarterly,Summer2013,p.4.
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[19] David Brooks,“The leaderless doctrine,“New York Times,March14,2014.
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美国世纪结束了吗？ 第七章 结论
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任何试图评估在未来几十年中美国实力的人都应该记得此前有多少同样的努力曾得出远离实际的结论。美国对20世纪70年代苏联实力和20世纪80年代日本实力的夸张估计是极好的教训。如今，一些分析家们充满信心地预测，中国将取代美国成为全球领导国家，而另一些分析家们同样自信地认为，“美国还只在其施展实力的开始阶段，21世纪仍将是美国的世纪”。[1]但无法预料的事件可以扰乱这样的预测。未来有许多可能，绝非一种，意外、误算和特异的人为选择将导致不同的结局。
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美国世纪结束了吗？ 净实力评估和均势
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