1703248850

1703248851 [40]BBC World Service, “Israel and Iran Share Most Negative Ratings in Global Poll,” 6 March 2007, http: //news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/06_03_07_perceptions.pdf (accessed 5 February 2013).

1703248852

1703248853 [41]Christian Reus-Smit, “Unipolarity and Legitimacy,”未出版的手稿。

1703248854

1703248855 [42]BBC World Service, Global Views of United States Improve While Other Countries Decline, 10 April 2010, http: //www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pipa/pdf/apr10/BBCViews_Apr10_rpt.pdf (accessed 1 July 2013).

1703248856

1703248857 [43]Pew Global Attitudes Project, “Global Opinion of Obama Slips, International Poli-cies Faulted,” 13 June 2012, http: //www.pewglobal.org/2012/06/13/global-opinion-of-obama-slips-international-policies-faulted (accessed 17 August 2012).

1703248858

1703248859 [44]“BBC Poll: Germany the Most Popular Country in the World,” 23 May 2013, http: //www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22624104 (accessed 29 May 2013).

1703248860

1703248861 [45]“World from Berlin: ‘Obama Owes His Allies an Explanation,’” Spiegel Online International, 1 July 2013, http: //www.spiegel.de/international/world/german-press-snowden-affair-and-nsa-eu-spying-revelations-a-908723.html (accessed 1 July 2013).

1703248862

1703248863 [46]Layne, “The Waning of US Hegemony—Myth or Reality?”

1703248864

1703248865 [47]乐观主义者的例子包括Mortimer Zuckerman, “A Second American Century,” Foreign Affairs 7, no.3 (1998): 18—31; Walter Russell Mead, Power, Terror, Peace and War: America’s Grand Strategy in a World at Risk (New York: Knopf, 2004); Stephen G.Brooks and William C.Wohlforth, World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of US Primacy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008); William C.Wohlforth, “The Stability of a Unipolar World,” International Security 24, no.1 (1999): 5—41; William C.Wohlforth, “US Strategy in a Unipolar World,” in G.John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002): 98—120; Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan, 4。

1703248866

1703248867 [48]James Traub, “Wallowing in Decline,” Foreign Policy, 24 September 2010, http: //www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/24/wallowing_in_decline?page=0,1 (accessed 27 December 2010); Stephen M.Walt, “The Virtues of Competence,” Foreign Policy, 22 September 2010, http: //walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/22/the_virtues_of_competence (accessed 27 December 2010).

1703248868

1703248869 [49]Zakaria, The Post-American World.

1703248870

1703248871 [50]Richard Haass, “The Age of Nonpolarity: What Will Follow US Dominance?” Foreign Affairs 87, no.3 (2008): 44—56; Layne, “The Waning of US Hegemony—Myth or Reality?”有关数据，参见National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 2008), http: //www.dni.gov/nic /PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf (accessed 25 May 2013)。有关非美国学者的视角，参见Dilip Hiro, After Empire: The Birth of a Multipolar World (New York: Nation Books, 2009); Giovanni Grevi, The Interpolar World: A New Scenario, Occasional Paper 79 (Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2009); Luis Peral, ed., Global Security in a Multipolar World Chaillot Paper 118 (Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2009); Thomas Renard, A BRIC in the World: Emerging Powers, Europe and the Coming Order (Brussels: Academic Press for the Royal Institute of International Relations, 2009); Álvaro de Vasconcelos, “Multilateralising Multi-Polarity II: Between Self-Interest and a Responsible Approach,” in Luis Peral, ed., Global Security in a Multi-polar World, Chaillot Paper 118 (Paris: European Institute for Security Studies, 2009), 5—14; Kishore Mahbubani, The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East (New York: Public Affairs Press, 2008)。

1703248872

1703248873 [51]Shirong Chen, “China Defends Africa Economic and Trade Role,” 23 December 2010, http: //www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/world-asia-pacific-12069624?SThisEM (accessed 23 December, 2010); Martin Wolf, Fixing Global Finance: How to Curb Financial Crisis in the 21st Century (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008).有关人权，参见“China Rejects US Criticism of Human Rights Record,” 11 May 2011, http: //www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13358081 (accessed 11 May 2011)。

1703248874

1703248875 [52]一个凸显的案例，可参见The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Remarks by the President in State of Union Address,” 25 January 2011, http: //www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/remarks-president-state-union-address (accessed 29 January 2011)。

1703248876

1703248877 [53]Nicholas Spykman, “Geography and Foreign Policy 2,” American Political Science Review 36, no.4 (1938): 213—236; Edward Hallett Carr, The Twenty Year’s Crisis, 1919—1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations (London: Macmillan, 1940); Hans J.Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace (New York: Knopf, 1948); Frederick Lewis Schuman, International Politics: An Introduction to the Western State (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1958).

1703248878

1703248879 [54]Hans J.Morgenthau, Politics in the Twentieth Century: The Impasse of American Foreign Policy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962), 141.

1703248880

1703248881 [55]约翰·伊肯伯里认为，美国冷战政策的缔造者了解这一原则，正因为如此，美国在其霸权初期获得了成功。参见G.John Ikenberry, After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order after Major Wars (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001)。

1703248882

1703248883 [56]Thomas Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1960); Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1966).

1703248884

1703248885 [57]Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994); Ted Hopf, Peripheral Visions: Deterrence Theory and American Foreign Policy in the Third World, 1965—1990 (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1994).

1703248886

1703248887 [58]Richard Ned Lebow, The Art of Bargaining (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996); Lebow and Stein, We All Lost the Cold War, chap.6.

1703248888

1703248889 [59]Thomas Schelling, Strategy of Conflict, 174.

1703248890

1703248891 [60]Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979).

1703248892

1703248893 [61]Kenneth N. Waltz, “The Emerging Structure of International Politics,” International Security 18, no.2 (1993): 44—79; Charles A.Kupchan, “After Pax Americana: Benign Power, Regional Integration, and the Sources of Stable Multipolarity,” International Security 23 (1998): 40—79; William C. Wohlforth, “The Stability of a Unipolar World,” International Security 24 (1999): 5—41; G. John Ikenberry, America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002).

1703248894

1703248895 [62]冷战证明了权力的某些原型的不相关性。苏联和美国发展了可观的核武库及其投送系统。这些武器是不能使用的。设计这些核武器的主要目的，是进行一场同归于尽式的超级大国战争，相当于自杀，即便不是全球范围内的同归于尽。核武器旨在威慑另一方。核武器及其投放系统的前沿部署是超级大国的冲突与冷战大为延伸的主要原因。参见Lebow and Stein, We All Lost the Cold War, chap.13。

1703248896

1703248897 [63]Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 2011 (Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), 158.

1703248898

1703248899 [64]Elisabeth Sköns, Catalina Perdomo, Sam Perlo-Freeman, and Petter Stålenheim,“Military Expenditure,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2004, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, http: //www.sipri.org/yearbook/2004/files/SIPRIYB0410.pdf, 311—313 (accessed 5 January 2012).

[ 上一页 ]  [ :1.70324885e+09 ]  [ 下一页 ]