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20.Smith Wilkinson cited in Ware, Early New England Cotton Manufacture,p..200.
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21.In the language of human capital theory, the case with a limited market corresponds to “firm-specific” human capital while the case with the robust market is called “general” human capital.See Becker, Human Capital.
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22.In economic theory, the provision of firm-specific human capital can be under provided because firms cannot credibly commit to rewarding employees for expending effort at learning.See Acemoglu and Autor, “Lectures in Labor Economics.”
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23.Marx, Capital, vol.1, ch..15, sec..5.
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24.Lyons, “Family Response.”
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25.Bessen, “More Machines.”
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26.Raw cotton used in textiles grew from about.027 bales per person in 1860 to.064 bales per person in 1920.After 1920, cotton consumption per capita exhibits no clear trend.Of course, the U.S.population grew substantially from 1830 to 1900, but not enough to o.set the labor-saving effect of technology.
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27.McKenzie and Smith, “Protectionism Warranted?” The number of cotton textile workers declined from about 450,000.in 1920, to about 300,000.in 1960, to about 50,000 in 2002 (Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States; Becker, Gray, and Marvakov, NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database).Output per worker is estimated from the NBER-CES database; from 1958 to 2005, real output per employee has grown an average 3.2 percent per year in cotton textiles (SIC 2211).Some of the decline in cotton employment can also be attributed to o.shoring and to shifts in consumer preferences to new fibers.
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28.The price elasticity of demand will decline as price declines under some rather general conditions.Suppose, for example, that consumers’ willingness to pay is distributed according to a distribution function.Let F(p) be the cumulative distribution function with respect to price, p.Then demand will be proportional to 1 – F(p).It is straightforward to show that the elasticity of demand with respect to price will increase with price if F is a lognormal distribution or a wide variety of other common distributions.Typical economic distributions, such as those for income or wealth, are lognormal.
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29.Saxonhouse and Wright, “Technique, Spirit, and Form.”
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30.Clark, “Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed?”
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31.Zeitz, “Do Local Institutions Affect All Foreign Investors in the Same Way?”
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32.Bloom et al., “Does Management Matter?”
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33.Throughout the nineteenth century, the United States imported more textiles than it exported.Although the United States was the most efficient producer of coarse cloths, much of the imported cloth was fine and fancy product.
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34.In 2012, the United States imported $5.7 billion in fabric and $1.4 billion in yarn.That year the United States exported $8.5 billion in fabric and $5.1 billion in yarn.Data is from the U.S.Commerce Department, International Trade Administration, O.ce of Textiles and Apparel, http://otexa.ita.doc.gov/msrpoint.htm.
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35.Broadwoven cotton fabrics accounted for 35 percent of the woven and knit products made by U.S.textile mills in 1958; they accounted for only 15 percent of output in 2005.These estimates are by dollar volume from the NBER-CES database.
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36.In 1929 there were 1.3 million textile workers, about one third of them producing cotton textiles; by 1973, there were 1.0 million textile workers, but only 15 percent were in cotton cloth and finishing; in 2005 there were only 274,000 textile workers, about 10 percent in cotton cloth and finishing.
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37.McKenzie and Smith, “Protectionism Warranted?”
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38.Leunig, “Piece Rates and Learning.”
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39.As noted previously, the QWERTY standard took two or three decades to emerge as the dominant standard.In steelmaking, Nuwer (“From Batch to Flow”) sees high throughput production standards emerging during the period of 1880– 1920; Jardini (“From Iron to Steel”) finds wages doubling at one mill as it adopted this standardized technology.
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第七章 如今的转变：只有稀缺的技术，没有稀缺的工作
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1.Original broadcast title “March of the Machines,” which aired on January 13, 2013, and was rebroadcast on September 8, 2013.Steve Kroft, correspondent; Harry Radliffe and Maria Gavrilovic, producers, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-robots-hurting-job-growth-08-09-2013/.
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2.Deloitte Consulting, “2014 MHI Annual Industry Report.”
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3.Gue et al., “U.S.Roadmap.”
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4.Gue et al., “U.S.Roadmap,” p..54.
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