1704380518

1704380519 5.Brynjolfsson and McAfee, Second Machine Age, p..10.

1704380520

1704380521 6.Occupational data can be tricky to compare over time because occupational classification schemes change.The table presents well-defined detailed occupations from an establishment (workplace) survey over an interval when the categories did not change.Unfortunately, the occupational data do not permit clear counts on warehouse occupations.While word processing, accounting software, etc., might have had a different effect prior to 1999, the claim is that these technologies are eliminating jobs now.

1704380522

1704380523 7.Gup, The Future of Banking.

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1704380525 8.Gup, The Future of Banking, p..53.

1704380526

1704380527 9.The ATM data come from various publications of the Bank for International Settlements, Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems: “Payment System in Eleven Developed Countries,” for 1980, 1985, and 1989; “Statistics on Payment System in Eleven Developed Countries,” for 1990, 1991, and 1992; “Statistics on Payment System in the Group of Ten Countries,” for 1993–1999; “Statistics on Payment and Settlement Systems in Selected Countries,” for 2001–2008; and “Statistics on Payment and Settlement Systems in the CPMI Countries,” for 2009.Using estimates from the Occupational Employment Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an establishment survey, the employment of tellers increased from 504,000.in 1984 to 576,580.in 2009.Using the household survey of the March Current Population Survey, tellers increased from 363,000.in 1976 to 469,000.in 2009, an increase of 29 percent.At the same time, the percentage of part-time tellers increased from 24 percent in 1976 to 29 percent in 2009.This makes the increase in “full-time equivalent” teller jobs 26 percent.

1704380528

1704380529 10.Hannan and Hanweck, “Recent Trends.” The number of savings associations did not increase as rapidly, but the number of employees per branch at savings associations fell only slightly, from thirteen to twelve.The cost of operations was not the only factor influencing the increase in bank branches.Other factors included population growth and deregulation.However, Hannan and Hanweck find that the number of bank branches increased more in areas with greater decreases in employees per branch.

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1704380531 11.See, for example, De Paula, “Rising Teller Turnover”; Nalbantian and Szostak, “How Fleet Bank Fought Employee Flight”; and Frei, “Breaking the Trade-O..”

1704380532

1704380533 12.Ann Carrns, “An ATM, With a Real Teller on the Screen,” New York Times, April 4, 2013.

1704380534

1704380535 13.Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment.”

1704380536

1704380537 14.In 1976, the median hourly wage for full-time typesetters and compositors was 15 percent above the median wage for all full-time workers.

1704380538

1704380539 15.William Glaberson, “Seeds of a Newspaper Struggle,” New York Times, December 8, 1992.In England, the comparable dispute was much more bitter, leading to a yearlong battle during the 1980s between Rupert Murdoch of News International and the unions.

1704380540

1704380541 16.I use 1979 and.2007 as comparison years here and in the following discussion, because these years were at roughly comparable points in the business cycle.Comparing the number of designers over time is a bit di.cult because the occupational categories were changing and because different surveys categorized designers differently.The March Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of households, reported 194,471 “designers” in 1979 and 897,728 in 2007.It is possible that this difference is exaggerated because the occupational categories used in this survey changed over time.The Occupational Employment Survey covers workplace establishments, and thus misses freelance designers, but it reports different types of designers and it uses more consistent occupational categories.In 2010, it reported 212,300 “graphic designers” and “desktop publishers.” I estimate (from CPS data) that about 26 percent of graphic designers today are freelancers, implying a total workforce of about 287,000 graphic designers.

1704380542

1704380543 17.These estimates come from the Current Population Survey, which does not directly measure work experience.In this chapter, I use an approximation of experience commonly used by labor economists: max(min(age-years-of-schooling-7, age-17),0).Roughly, this measures the number of years that the person has been out of school, assuming he/she began school at age 7 and including some checks for bad data.

1704380544

1704380545 18.For all types of designers, the hourly pay of the 90th percentile has increased 14 percent relative to the median hourly pay from 1979 to 2007.Generally, designers’ pay has become more unequal with greater variation from designer to designer.These trends, of course, are not unique to designers, but are seen in a wide range of occupations.

1704380546

1704380547 19.Using the March Current Population Survey sample comparing 1976–1980 to 2005–2009.

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1704380549 20.American Nurses Association, “American Nurses Association’s First Position.”

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1704380551 21.The ANA, of course, had some self-interest in doing so, since stricter requirements would help raise wages for its members.See Chapter 9.

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1704380553 22.Christensen, Grossman, and Hwang, Innovator’s Prescription.

1704380554

1704380555 23.Autor, Dorn, and Hanson, “China Syndrome.”

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1704380557 24.Acemoglu et al., “Return of the Solow Paradox?”

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1704380559 25.Autor, Levy, and Murnane, “Skill Content.”

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1704380561 26.This assumes that computer skills are occupation specific, otherwise wages for workers with computer skills would be equalized across occupations.This assumption makes sense if the associated skills are for application-specific computer systems, not merely for computer use generally.

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1704380563 27.The measure of experience here is potential experience calculated as the age of the worker minus the years of schooling minus 7.The table is based on differences in the means of log hourly wages.A multiple regression analysis using a Mincer-type equation with dummy variables for different levels of schooling and experience, plus controls for gender and race, shows very similar estimates based on differences in regression coefficients.

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1704380565 28.Manpower Group, “Talent Shortage Survey.”

1704380566

1704380567 29.Cappelli, Why Good People Can’t Get Jobs.

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