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然而，我们必须把短期效果和长远影响区别开来。在英国工业革命的最后几十年里，出现了一种新的增长模式：蒸汽机的采用使生产率的增长加快了，人们的实际工资开始同步增长。很大程度上，它是在缺少对劳动力进行组织，也缺少政府为提高工资而进行重大干预的情况下发生的。原因很简单，在典型的工业化时期，随着机械化工厂取代家庭体系，技术以资本的形式取代了现有任务中的工匠。虽然在早期的工厂中也出现了新任务，但它们需要的是另一种工人：纺纱机器经专门设计，适合儿童照管；儿童没有议价能力，而且相对容易控制，因此雇佣童工的成本很低。与如今的高级机器人技术相似，操作机器的童工取代了中等收入的成年工人。相比之下，在工业革命后期，工厂中出现的更复杂的机器就要求有更多技术工人，工人们发现新技术有助于增强他们的技能。越来越大的工厂也需要更多工程师和更多技术工人从事运营和管理。技术变革从取代型转向使能型，随着工人们的技术变得更有价值，技术变革的变化使他们的议价能力有所提高。现代增长模式的到来标志着对机器的普遍抵制的结束，这很难说是一个巧合。我们将看到，人们对待技术变革的态度取决于是否有望从中获利。
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注释
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1 B. Disraeli, 1844, Coningsby (a Public Domain Book), 187, Kindle.
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2 F. Engels, [1844] 1943, The Condition of the Working-Class in England in 1844. Reprint, London: Allen & Unwin, 100; 25-26.
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3 参见D. Defoe, [1724] 1971, A Tour through the Whole Island of Great Britain (London: Penguin), 432。
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4 D. S. Landes, 1969, The Unbound Prometheus: Technological Change and Development in Western Europe from 1750 to the Present (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), 128.
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5 “The Present Condition of British Workmen,” 1834, accessed December 15, 2018, https://deriv.nls.uk/dcn9/7489/74895330.9.htm.
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6 关于城镇的工资溢价，参见J. G. Williamson, 1987, “Did English Factor Markets Fail during the Industrial Revolution?”， Oxford Economic Papers 39 (4): 641-78。
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7 关于产量趋势，参见N. F. Crafts and C. K. Harley, 1992, “Output Growth and the British Industrial Revolution: A Restatement of the Crafts-Harley View,” Economic History Review 45 (4): 703-30。
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8 C. H. Feinstein, 1998, “Pessimism Perpetuated: Real Wages and the Standard of Living in Britain during and after the Industrial Revolution,” Journal of Economic History 58 (3): 625-58；R. C. Allen, 2009b, “Engels’ Pause: Technical Change, Capital Accumulation, and Inequality in the British Industrial Revolution,” Explorations in Economic History 46 (4): 418-35。按照古拉里·克拉克关于实际工资的预测，直到19世纪20年代，人们的实际工资才超过18世纪中期的水平。（2005, “The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209–2004,” Journal of Political Economy, 113 [6] 1307-40）克拉克认为，1820年以后实际工资的上升速度比艾伦或范斯坦预测的要更快，但他的观点与我们从消费和身高数据以及当代的记载中了解到的情况不一致。
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9 关于工时，参见H. Voth, 2000, Time and Work in England 1750–1830 (Oxford: Clarendon Press of Oxford University Press)。
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10 关于利润率，参见Allen, 2009b, “Engels’ Pause”。
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11 关于前5%的人群的收入份额，参见 P. H. Lindert, 2000b, “When Did Inequality Rise in Britain and America?” ，Journal of Income Distribution 9 (1): 11-25。
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12 G. Clark, M. Huberman, and P. H. Lindert, 1995, “A British Food Puzzle, 1770–1850,” Economic History Review 48 (2): 215-37。但如前所述，最近的研究表明这种情况并不令人困惑，因为实际工资停滞不前，低收入群体的工资甚至下降了。
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13 S. Horrell, 1996, “Home Demand and British Industrialisation,” Journal of Economic History 56 (September): 561-604.
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14 R. H. Steckel, 2008, “Biological Measures of the Standard of Living,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22 (1): 129-52。罗伯特·福格尔（Robert Fogel）首次提出可以使用身高数据来估算生活标准的观点。［1983, “Scientific History and Traditional History,” in Which Road to the Past?, ed. R. W. Fogel and G. R. Elton (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press), 5-70.］
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15 R. C. Floud, K. Wachter, and A. Gregory, 1990, Height, Health, and History: Nutritional Status in the United Kingdom, 1750–1980 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), chapter 4; J. Komlos, 1998, “Shrinking in a Growing Economy? The Mystery of Physical Stature during the Industrial Revolution,” Journal of Economic History 58 (3): 779-802.
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16 关于环境与贫穷的观点，参见J. Mokyr, 2011, The Enlightened Economy: Britain and the Industrial Revolution, 1700–1850 (London: Penguin), chapter 10, Kindle。
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17 参见J. G. Williamson, 2002, Coping with City Growth during the British Industrial Revolution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) 。
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18 S. Szreter and G. Mooney, 1998, “Urbanization, Mortality, and the Standard of Living Debate: New Estimates of the Expectation of Life at Birth in Nineteenth-Century British Cities,” Economic History Review 51 (1): 84-112.
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19 J. Komlos and B. A’Hearn, 2017, “Hidden Negative Aspects of Industrialization at the Onset of Modern Economic Growth in the US,” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 41 (June): 43.
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20 F. M. Eden, 1797, The State of the Poor; or, An History of the Labouring Classes in England (London: B. and J. White), 3
:848.
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21 D. Ricardo, [1817] 1911, The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (Repr., London: Dent).
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22 例如，让—巴蒂斯特·赛（Jean-Baptiste Say）就认为省力技术减少了成本，进而降低了价格，让需求增加了。这意味着被取代的工人重回工作岗位只是时间问题。尽管后来李嘉图重新评估了他提出的模型，但他和马尔萨斯、恩格斯一样，仍不相信工业化在长期能提高实际工资。
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23 E. C. Gaskell, 1884, Mary Barton (London: Chapman and Hall), 104.
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