1704605553

1704605554  64  “17,000,000 Horses on Farms,” 1921, New York Times, December 30.

1704605555

1704605556  65  T. Sorensen, P. Fishback, S. Kantor, and P. Rhode, 2008, “The New Deal and the Diffusion of Tractors in the 1930s” (Working paper, University of Arizona, Tucson).

1704605557

1704605558  66  R. Solow, 1987, “We’d Better Watch Out,” New York Times Book Review, July 12; H. Gilman, 1987, “The Age of Caution: Companies Slow the Move to Automation,” Wall Street Journal, June 12.

1704605559

1704605560  67  出处同上。

1704605561

1704605562  68  参见T. F. Bresnahan, E. Brynjolfsson, and L. M. Hitt, 2002, “Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (1): 339–76；E. Brynjolfsson, L. M. Hitt, and S. Yang, 2002, “Intangible Assets: Computers and Organizational Capital,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2002 (1): 137–81；E. Brynjolfsson and L. M. Hitt, 2000, “Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 (4): 23–48。

1704605563

1704605564  69  M. Hammer, 1990, “Reengineering Work: Don’t Automate, Obliterate,” Harvard Business Review 68 (4): 104–12.

1704605565

1704605566  70  关于许多公司的流程再造计划，参见J. Rifkin, 1995, The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-market Era (New York: G. P. Putnam’s Sons)。

1704605567

1704605568  71  P. A. David, 1990, “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox,” American Economic Review 80 (2): 355–61.

1704605569

1704605570  72  详细讨论参见R. J. Gordon, 2005, “The 1920s and the 1990s in Mutual Reflection” (Working Paper 11778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA)。

1704605571

1704605572  73  S. D. Oliner and D. E. Sichel, 2000, “The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 (4): 3–22.

1704605573

1704605574  74  W. D. Nordhaus, 2005, “The Sources of the Productivity Rebound and the Manufacturing Employment Puzzle” (Working Paper 11354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA).

1704605575

1704605576  75  据估计在1993—2007年，在17个国家的国内生产总值（GDP）里，机器人在总增长中所占的比例超过了十分之一。参见G. Graetz and G. Michaels, forthcoming, “Robots at Work,” Review of Economics and Statistics。

1704605577

1704605578  76  J. Bughin et al., 2017, “How Artificial Intelligence Can Deliver Real Value to Companies,” McKinsey Global Institute, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-analytics/our-insights/how-artificial-intelligence-can-deliver-real-value-to-companies.

1704605579

1704605580  77  实际上技术带来的许多好处无法估量，这在原则上可以为生产率的下降提供一些解释。在最近的一项研究中，经济学家奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）和彼得·可莱诺（Peter Klenow）使用了一种新的方法来衡量那些基于互联网的技术的价值，他们的研究对象是人们上网的时间。基于“消费涉及收入和时间的支出”这一直觉，他们估计与互联网相关的消费者盈余可能高达3%（人均中位数为每年3000美元）。参见A. Goolsbee and P. Klenow, 2006, “Valuing Consumer Products by the Time Spent Using Them: An Application to the Internet,” American Economic Review 96 (2): 108–13。查德·斯弗森（Chad Syverson）最近使用美国人时间使用调查和个人可支配收入的数据，扩展了关于时间价值的分析。他根据古尔斯比和可莱诺得出的3%的估值，计算出2105年与互联网相关的人均消费者盈余约为3900美元。（2017, “Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 31 [2]: 165–86）尽管如此，我们仍不清楚在计算机时代误测现象是否更加严重。事实上，美国参议院于1995年任命的博斯金委员会也发现了大量未被衡量的、质量有待改进的证据。因此，在近期的生产率放缓是否是误测这一点上，已经不是误测是否存在的问题，而是误测在近年来是否变得更严重的问题了。经济学家已经证明，这一问题的回答是否定的。虽然确实存在误测，但这种错误似乎在变小，而不是变大。与计算机硬件和相关服务以及无形资产（如专利、商标和广告支出）的价格相关联的误测只会让生产率增长放缓更严重。1995—2004年，国内与计算机相关的产品和服务的产量下降了，这意味着在一些数字技术方面的误测变严重了，当时的误测问题比现在更严重。将这些调整汇总在一起，1995—2004年公布的劳动生产率数据增加了0.5个百分点，但2004—2014年仅增加了0.2个百分点。（参见D. M. Byrne, J. G. Fernald, and M. B. Reinsdorf, 2016, “Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016 [1]: 109–82）即使我们将消费者从维基百科、谷歌、脸书等免费服务中获益的高端收益考虑在内，也只能解释经济放缓的三分之一左右的内容。斯弗森认为如果生产率增速没有下降，2015年的GDP将增长16%，美国经济将增加2.9万亿美元，这相当于每个公民的收入增加9100美元或每个家庭的收入增加23,400美元。（2017, “Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown”）我们的基本观点是，误测范围可能很大，但不足以解释生产率的下降。生产率放缓似乎是结构性的，同时也是真实的。

1704605581

1704605582  78  Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson, forthcoming, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox,” 25.

1704605583

1704605584  79  C. F. Kerry and J. Karsten, 2017, “Gauging Investment in Self-Driving Cars,” Brookings Institution, October16. https://www.brookings.edu/research/gauging-investment-in-self-driving-cars/.

1704605585

1704605586  80  Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson, forthcoming, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox,” 25.

1704605587

1704605588  81  N. F. Crafts and T. C. Mills, 2017, “Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes” (Discussion Paper 12029, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London)。他们的发现与埃里克·巴特尔斯曼（Eric Bartelsman）的观察一致，即生产率预测表现得“非常糟糕，预测的标准误差超出了对政策有用的范围”。（2013, “ICT, Reallocation and Productivity” [Brussels: European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Afairs]）

1704605589

1704605590  82  H. Jerome, 1934, “Mechanization in Industry” (Working Paper 27, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York), 19.

1704605591

1704605592  83  H. R. Varian, forthcoming, “Artificial Intelligence, Economics, and Industrial Organization,” in The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), 1.

1704605593

1704605594  84  出处同上，15。

1704605595

1704605596  85  Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson, forthcoming, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox.”

1704605597

1704605598  86  N. F. Crafts, 2004, “Steam as a General Purpose Technology: A Growth Accounting Perspective,” Economic Journal 114 (495): 338–51.

1704605599

1704605600  87  引自J. L. Simon, 2000, The Great Breakthrough and Its Cause (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press), 108。

1704605601

1704605602  88  P. Colquhoun, 1815, A Treatise on the Wealth, Power, and Resources of the British Empire, Johnson Reprint Corporation), 68–69。也可参见J. Mokyr, 2011, The Enlightened Economy; Britain and the Industrial Revolution, 1700–1850 (London: Penguin), chapter 5, Kindle。感谢乔尔·莫基尔指出了这一点。

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