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[41]Andrea Brandolini,“Nonlinear Dynamics,Entitlement Rules,and the Cyclical Behaviour of the Personal Income Distribution,” Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper 84,London School of Economics,July 1992.
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[42]和关于异质性行为人的宏观经济学文献一样,请参见Vincenzo Quadrini and José-Victor Rios-Rull,“Inequality in Macroeconomics,” in Anthony B. Atkinson and Franois Bourguignon,eds.,Handbook of Income Distribution,vol. 2B (Amsterdam: Elsevier,2015),1229-1302.
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[43]U.S. Census Bureau,Educational Attainment in the United States: 2013,Table 1: “Educational Attainment of the Population 18 Years and Over.”
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[44]World Bank,Data on labour force with tertiary education: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.TERT.ZS.
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[45]这些计算假设收入分配的上尾表现出帕累托分布。帕累托分布是由Vilfredo Pareto于19世纪末首次提出的,它的数学形式是:收入为Y及以上的人群比重与Y -α成一定比例,其中α为帕累托系数。帕累托分布的特性是Y以上的平均收入等于α/(α-1) Y。英国的帕累托系数从1977年的4.5左右下降到2003年的2.8(数据来源:Anthony B. Atkinson and Sarah Voitchovsky,“The Distribution of Top Earnings in the UK since the Second World War,” Economica 78 (2011): 440-459),这些数值是本书计算相关数字的基础。譬如,α=4.5时得出Y以上的平均收入为4.5/3.5 (= 1.29)乘以Y。从收入的前十分之一进入前百分之一,收入需要上升10 1/α倍。
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[46]Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson,“Winner-Take-All Politics: Public Policy,Political Organization,and the Precipitous Rise of Top In comes in the United States,” Politics and Society 38 (2010): 152-204.
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[47]See Atkinson,The Changing Distribution of Earnings in OECD Countries,Ch. 4.
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[48]Anthony B. Atkinson,“The Distribution of Top Incomes in the United Kingdom 1908-2000,” in A. B. Atkinson and Thomas Piketty,eds.,Top Incomes: A Global Perspective (Oxford: Oxford University Press,2010),82-140,Figure 4.11。
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[49]Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez,“Income and Wage Inequality in the United States,1913-2002,” in Atkinson and Piketty,Top Incomes,quote p. 153.
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[50]Jon Bakija,Adam Cole,and Bradley T. Heim,“Jobs and Income Growth of Top Earners and the Causes of Changing Income Inequality: Evidence from U.S. Tax Return Data,” Williams College Department of Economics Working Paper,2010-22 (revised 2012).
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[51]Alfred Marshall,Principles of Economics,8th ed. (London: Macmillan,1920).
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[52]Thomas Lemieux,W. Bentley MacLeod,and Daniel Parent,“Performance Pay and Wage Inequality,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 (2009): 1-49.
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[53]Hacker and Pierson,“Winner-Take-All Politics,” p. 203.
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[54]Hacker and Pierson,“Winner-Take-All Politics,” p. 192.
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[55]Facundo Alvaredo,Anthony B. Atkinson,Thomas Piketty,and Emmanuel Saez,“The Top 1 Per Cent in International and Historical Perspective,”Journal of Economic Perspectives 27 (2013): 3-20,表1。美国的数据来源于Christoph Lakner,“Wages,Capital and Top Incomes: The Factor Income Composition of Top Incomes in the USA,1960-2005,” forthcoming。Rolf Aaberge,Anthony B. Atkinson,Sebastian Knigs和Christoph Lakner还对比了美国数据和挪威数据,请参见Rolf Aaberge,Anthony B. Atkinson,Sebastian Knigs and Christoph Lakner,“Wages,Capital and Top In comes,” forthcoming。劳动收入的定义为工资、养老金与2/3营业(自营)收入之和。
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[56]John Kay and Mervyn King,The British Tax System (Oxford: Oxford University Press,1980),quote p. 59.
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[57]对于男性是这样的,但对于女性却不一定。如果我们观察一下收入的前1%,就会看到女性的比例严重偏低。譬如在加拿大,2010年1%最高收入人群中只有21%是女性(Statistics Canada,“High-Income Trends among Canadian Taxfilers,1982 to 2010,” release 28 January 2013)。在英国,2011年该比例为17%(Anthony B. Atkinson,Alessandra Casarico,and Sarah Voitchovsky,“Top Incomes and the Glass Ceiling,” forthcoming)。男性和女性之间存在明显的“玻璃天花板”。
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第4章 技术变革与抗衡力量
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[1]“The Future of Jobs: The Onrushing Wave,” Briefing,Economist, 18 January 2014.
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[2]John M. Keynes,“Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” originally published in The Nation and Athenaeum (11 and 18 October,1930),reprinted in Essays in Persuasion (London: Macmillan,1933),part V,ch. 2.
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[3]McKinsey roundtable discussion,“Automation,Jobs,and the Future of Work,” December 2014,edited transcript.
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[4]Remarks by Hunter Rawlings,quoted in American Academy of Arts and Sciences,Restoring the Foundation (Cambridge,MA: American Academy of Arts and Sciences,2014),quote p. 10.
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[5]Mariana Mazzucato,The Entrepreneurial State (London: Anthem Press,2014),quote pp. 96 and 101.
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[6]Mazzucato,The Entrepreneurial State,quote p. 193.
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[7]Steven Johnson,How We Got to Now (New York: Riverhead Press,2014),quote p. x.
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